🔗 Share this article

When the Russian President visited India in the previous decade, the international order was markedly different. That short trip, limited by the pandemic, focused on talks on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would transform the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, significantly restricting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that period preceded a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by inflammatory statements and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"Against this backdrop, the significance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi is profound, serving as a signal of resilient relations and a rejection of outside coercion," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The high-level meeting occurs at a crucial time. The Kremlin leader comes following rejecting latest peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this engagement is its very occurrence," stated a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to something resembling normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a challenging international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a public commentary questioning Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a firm rebuke from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate interference.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and is firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's top defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. Yet, in the wake of failed peace efforts, pressure increased, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in US-India ties.

"In response, India has reverted to its traditional posture of 'hedging'," explained a strategic analyst. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Apart from international politics, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "China remains the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has caused concern in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its adversary and its traditional ally.

This apprehension has also spurred India's drive to reduce its military imports, shrinking its dependence on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in recent years.

"India will attempt to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but avoid so dependent that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst concluded.

The Oil Question

Increased economic cooperation is likely to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", defying Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil purchases is central. While the Indian government has vowed to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. Simultaneously, India has moved to boost imports of US energy.

A Russian official acknowledged "hurdles" in energy trade but said it would continue without major disruption. The official minimized the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "minor" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "means" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be addressed mainly through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader can speak to both sides, India lacks the necessary leverage to alter the course of the conflict," the analyst noted. "Beyond encouraging talks, its capacity to make a difference is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pragmatic strategic interest," guided by national interest in a rapidly changing world.