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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.